A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
